The Democratic margin has been 12 percentage points better, on average, than the partisan lean in each race. Harry Enten conducted a comprehensive analysis of 2017 special elections - all 70 of them - taking into account the established partisan “lean” of the jurisdiction being contested. But it is impossible to take an honest look at the overall pattern of 2017 contests without hearing the not-so-distant rumbling of a likely 2018 wave for Democrats. Republicans can, as Donald Trump has done, rationalize this or that 2017 defeat as being an anomaly. That would have been the case even if Roy Moore had eked out a narrow win. While the Alabama Senate special election was an aberration in many respects, the results were entirely consistent with the pro-Democratic trend that has persisted throughout 2017’s special and off-year elections. Yes, that Democratic wave is still building on the horizon.
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